Pure Hedge - Livestock and Grain

Cattle & Beef - iStock-1286482132


     The Cattle Markets ended the day mixed, with the Fats slightly higher and the Feeders losing about 1 ½ dollars. August'24 Live Cattle were 60 cents higher and settled at 1183.15. Today's high was 183.95 and that is also the new 1-month high. The 52-week high is 192.45. Today's low was 181.75 and the 1-month low is 175.80. The 52-week low is 163.62 ½. Since 5/21 August'24 Live Cattle are $2.72 ½ higher or 1 ½%. The Feeders closed lower before the Cattle on Feed Report. August'24 Feeder Cattle were 1.45 lower today and settled at 258.37 ½. Today's high was 260.17 ½ and the 1-month high is 264.95. Today's low was 258.00 and the 1-month low is 250.80. The 52-week low is 229.50. Since 5/21 August'24 Feeder Cattle are $1.45 lower or just over ½%. The Hogs were able to stay positive today. August'24 Lean Hogs were 20 cents higher today and settled at 89.32 ½. Today's high was 89.77 ½ and the 1-month high is 98.72 ½. Today's low was 88.57 ½ and the 1-month low is 86.67 ½ and that is also the 52-week low. Since 5/21 August'24 Lean Hogs are $9.25 lower or almost 9 ½%. The Cattle on Feed Report was released, and it showed 11.6 million head on June 1st. That is a little below from June 1st last year and was in line with estimates. Marketings totaled 1.96 million head, slightly more than 2023. Placements in May totaled 2.05 million head, 4% above 2023 numbers. That is a Bearish number, with expectations being a decrease of 1 ½%. That swing of 5 ½% could push the Cattle Markets lower next week. The packers have been buying Cattle aggressively recently, to get ready for the 4th of July weekend, but I expect that to stop after this report, and the first week of July. The seasonal decline in beef prices could begin then. If the Cattle prices continue to rally, what does that do to replacement costs? I believe the top of the Cattle Market is here or near, and we will see prices slide lower through the summer after the Fourth of July Weekend.

     The Grains were mixed as well today. The Beans had a small gain, and November'24 Soybeans were 3 ¼ cents higher today and settled at 1120. Today's high was 1125 ¾ and the 1-month high is 1228. Today's low was 1113 ¼ and that is also the new 1-month and 52-week low. Since 5/21 November'24 Soybeans are 93 cents lower or more than 7 ½%. The Corn traded a little lower. December'24 Corn was 3 ½ cents lower today and settled at 453 ¼. Today's high was 459 ½ and the 1-month high is 493. Today's low was 452 ½ and that is the new 1-month low as well. The 52-week low is 446. Since 5/21 August'24 Corn is 29 cents lower or 6%. The Wheat Market dropped another dime. September'24 Wheat was 10 ¼ cents lower today and settled at 575 ¾. Today's high was 593 ¾ and the 1-month high is 739 ¼. Today's low was 574 ¼ and that is also the new 1-month low. The 52-week low is 550. Since 5/21 September'24 Wheat is $1.41 ¾ lower or almost 20%. The July'24 Option contract expired today, but the Beans reached my expected levels yesterday. The November'24 Soybeans are only 20 cents from $11.00, and I expect the September'24 Soybeans to trade through the $11.00 level. November'24 Soybeans set a new 52-week low today 1113 ¼, and I believe that will continue to happen. The December'24 and September'24 Corn Markets both set new 1-month lows today, and I feel we will be heading higher from here. The Wheat Market followed the same pattern as September'24 Wheat set a new 1-month low as well. The Wheat market is crazy, and moves where it wants to, when it wants to. There is an acreage Report at the end of the month, and I feel it will be Bearish for Soybeans and Bullish for Corn. I think we will see there were more acres of Soybeans planted then were expected or reported, with fewer acres of Corn. I have also heard of many Corn crops under water, in multiple States. I feel the Corn Market will be back above 480 soon, with more room to run. If there is not a major drought or locusts eating the whole Bean crop, I feel the Soybean Market will continue to break. There will be plenty of Soybeans this fall. 

     USDA Cattle on Feed Report Below







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